The Cumulative Case for Natural Theology

(click to view enlarged diagram)

It's sometimes claimed that the cumulative case for Christian theism is like a chain of reasoning, where the entire chain is only as strong as its individual links. But some have likened it to a coat of chainmaille, where each argument can stand independently, but also mutually support one another. To show the logical structure of this metaphor, I created this sheet as an attempt to illustrate the chainmaille defense of the truth of basic Christian theism. 

Each argument is seen as evidence for (or against) Christianity, and each piece of evidence updates the prior probability for the preceding calculation. So for example, I take the Leibnizian Cosmological Argument (LCA) to begin with the hypothesis H0 ,  that "God, as defined by the Ontological Argument, is possible". (The Ontological Argument as a definition of God only serves as a running model for confirmation or disconfirmation based on later evidence or argument we bring to the model.) Once this probability is calculated with the LCA, its posterior probability becomes the new intrinsic probability p(H1), of the God hypothesis used for the kalām Cosmological Argument (kCA).

This new H1 will then state something like, "God, as defined by the Ontological Argument, and the Leibnizian Cosmological Argument, exists." Then that posterior probability is calculated with its result plugged into the next prior probability p(H2), which will be used for the Fine-tuning Argument (FTA), and so on for the Moral Argument (MA), and finally for the Argument from Miracles (AM), which is a historical case for the resurrection of Jesus.

This will be the cumulative force of the project of Natural Theology, represented as a probability for Christian theism (highlighted in green).

Next, the Christian case is faced with atheistic objections, and the final probability highlighted in red is what survives the Bayesian calculation after the evidential version of the Problem of Evil (PoE) and the Problem of Hell (PoH) is subtracted from the already established cumulative case for Christianity. These two atheistic arguments have as their hypotheses H5 ,  something like, "the Christian God does not exist."

Anyways, the initial prior probability is set at 50% on behalf of the agnostics, and, upon grasping the arguments, the inquirer is meant to alter the cells highlighted in brown below. For example, upon grasping the LCA, I suspect that the probability that it is true on theism is 70%. But you may think that probability is more likely, or not. Either way, enjoy!